Work package 1 provides a backcasting scenario analysis for the ScenoProt research project. Multiple futures research methods (literature review, Delphi, interpretative content analysis, Multi-Level Perspective analysis, cross-impact analysis, futures workshops, ranking, futures table) are employed to design six scenarios that connect the normative vision in 2030 with the current state of affairs. The vision is a manifestation of a protein system that improves public health, environmental sustainability and self-sufficiency & food security.
Three basic scenarios feature stable, compliant and vision-friendly operating environment, and three wild card scenarios feature turbulent, resistant and vision-unfriendly operating environment. The first of the basic scenarios is driven by novel products and responsible consumers, the second is driven by sustainability technologies and the third is driven by health, sustainability and food policies. The wild card scenarios feature settings, where self-sufficiency is either a must, an open and market-driven issue or based on abundance. In the later stages of the research, these prototypes will be elaborated, quantified and scheduled further and subjected to feasibility analysis.
Objectives of WP1:
- to identify alternative scenario paths that realize the 2030 vision
- to evaluate the potential, feasibility and compatibility of alternatives paths
- to identify political, economic, social, technological and environmental problems to be solved in each scenario and elaborate solutions for them.